Downscaling and modelling climatic change projections with rainfall erosivity impact and wind velocity potential in the variability of tropical climate: a track towards space-earth sustainability nexus
Keywords:Atmospheric wellbeing, Wind velocity, Wind direction, Climate projection, Sea-land-atmospheric nexus
The increase in atmospheric properties degradation including environmental polarization and ecosystem degradation has been linked with levels of climatic hazards posed by climatic change. The geographical location of the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria in the North Central geo-political zone of Nigeria within the Savannah vegetation zone of the Wet African sub-region was x-rayed for her atmospheric-climatic-space property of wind, rainfall and the impact of the meteorological element of rainfall on the erosivity of the area. Downscaling of a thirty five (35) years climatic data was done. Modelling and simulation was undertaken using geo-statistical and physical science modelling and simulation packages including QGIS and Statgraphics centurion. Simulated and modelled data were subjected to statistical analysis using descriptive statistics including P-statistics. Result of the finding revealed that there exist a shift in the climatic behaviour of the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria with projected data significant level at a P-value range at [P-value = 0.654638, P-value = 0.859967 and P-value = 0.859967] of the P-statistics at a 95% significant level (p > = 0.05), hence, validating a past (35 years) and future (12 years projection) change in the climatic behaviour of the area. Wind velocity impact in the area for the past 35 years has been huge, thus presenting a value range at 81.36km/h-12.6km/h which indicated high sea-land-atmospheric nexus impact towards the variability that exist in the climatic wellbeing of the area. Wind directional flux of the area ranges from 22°°-4.8 which also contributed to the change in climatic behavior of the area. There exist very minimal rainfall impact in the erosivity impact in the area, with a coefficient of Variation at CV=0.16%.
ABIMBOLA O.J., FALAIYE O.A. (2016) Estimation Of Precipitable Water Vapour In Nigeria Using Surface Meteorological Data. Ife Journal of Science. 18:2. ISSN: 0794-4896
ABIMBOLA O.J., FALAIYE O.A., OMOJOLA J. (2017) Estimation of Precipitable Water Vapour in Nigeria Using NIGNET GNSS/GPS, NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II and Surface Meteorological Data. Journal of Physical Science, 28(2):19–29. https://doi.org/10.21315/jps2017.28.2.2
ADIAHA M.S., OKU E.E., CHUDE V.O., NWAKA G.I.C, UKEM B. (2019) Predicting soil erosion with estimation of saturated hydraulic conductivity from soil porosity: a strategy for meeting the SDG goal two and six. World Scientific News. WSN 136:194-225. ISSN: 2392-2192
ADIAHA M.S., BUBA A.H., TANGBAN E.E, OKPOHO A.N. (2020) Mitigating Global Greenhouse Gas Emission: The Role of Trees as a Clean Mechanism for CO2 Sequestration, Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 15(1):101-115. http://doi.org/10.4038/jas.v15i1.8675
ADIAHA M.S., CHUDE V.O., NWAKA G.I.C., OKU E.E. (2022a) Carbon auditing in tree-soil nexus: a sustainable approach towards CO2 sequestration and environmental transformation. EQA - International Journal of Environ-mental Quality, 48(1):1–9. https://doi.org/10.6092/issn. 2281-4485/13838
ADIAHA M.S, CHUDE V.O., AGBA O.A., NWAKA G.I. C., OKU E.E. (2022b). Mapping soil organic carbon-soil biodiversity variability in the ecosystem-nexus of tropical soils. EQA - International Journal of Environmental Quality, 50, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.2281-4485/14617
ADIAHA M.S. (2023) Estimating radioactivity flux in tropical soils: a strategy for plant survival policy, environmental balance and human–animal-ecosystem nexus wellbeing. EQA - International Journal of Environmental Quality, 53(1):11–20. https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.2281-4485/15681
ADIKU S.G.K., STONE R.C. (1995) Using the southern Oscillation Index for improving rainfall prediction and agricultural water management in Ghana. Agricultural water management, 29:85-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3774 (95)01181-1
AKPONIKPE I., GERARD B., KARLHEINZ M., BIELDERS C. (2010) Use of the APSIM model in long term simulation to support decision making regarding nitrogen management for pearl millet in the sahel. European Journal for Agronomy, 32(2):144-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2009.09.005
ANDREWS P.L. (2012) Modeling Wind Adjustment Factor and Midflame Wind Speed for Rothermel’s Surface Fire Spread Model. United States Department of Agriculture/Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. https://doi.org/10.2737/RMRS-GTR-266 .
BELCHER S.E., HARMAN I.N., FINNIGAN J.J. (2012) The wind in the willows: flows in forest canopies in complex terrain. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech. 44:479–504. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-fluid-120710-101036
COOK K.H., VIZY E.K. (2006) Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: 20th century simula-lations and 21st century predictions. Journal of Climate 19(15):3681–3703. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3814.1
ELTAHIR E.A.B., GONG C., (1996). Dynamics of wet and dry years in West Africa. Journal. of Climate, 9:1030–1042
ENLAP E.K., MATULLA C., VON STORCH H., MKANKAM. F. (2004) Downscaling of GCM scenarios to assess precipitation changes in the little rainy season (March-June) in Cameroon. Climate Research – Climate Change, 26:. 85-96. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr026085.
FORTHOFER, J.M. (2007) Modelling Wind in Complex Terrain for Use in Fire Spread Prediction. Thesis, Department of Forest, Rangeland and Watershed Stewardship, Colorado State University.
FOURNIER F. (1960) Climat et erosion. P.U.F. Paris.
GIANNINI A., BIASUTTI M., HELD I.M., SOBEL A.H. (2008) A global perspective on African climate. Climatic Change, 90:359–383. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9396-y
GIANNINI, L., BIASUTTI, M., VERSTRAETE, M. M. (2008) A climate model-based review of drought in the Sahel: Desertification, the re-greening and climate change. Global and Planetary Change, 64(3–4):119-128. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.05.004.
GOVERNMENT OF CANADA (2017). Beaufort wind scale table. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/general-marine-weather-information/ understanding-forecasts/beaufort-wind-scale-table.html
HEWITSON B.C., CRANE R.G. (2006) Consensus between GCM cimate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 26:1315-1337. https://doi.org/
IPCC (1996) Climate Change: Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific- Technical Analyses,” Contribution of Working Group II to the second assessment Report of the Intergovernmenal Panel on Climate Change, R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera, and R. H. Moss (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York, NY,USA.
IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers, in: “Climate Change The physical Science Basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M.Tignor,, S.K.Allen, J. Boschung, A.Nauels, Y. Xia, V.Bex, and P.M. Midgley(Eds), Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY,USA.
IPCC (2000) Summary for policy makers, Emissions Scenarios, A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III, pp.27.
JAMES I.U., MOSES I.F., VANDI J. N. (2013). Assessment of gamma dose rate within Idu industrial area of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja, Nigeria. The International Journal of Engineering and Science (IJES), 2(11):52-55. ISSN: 2319 – 1813
MEZA F.J., SILVA D. (2009) Dynamic adaptation of maize and wheat production to climate change. Climate Change, 94:143-156. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9544-z
MUGHAL M.O., LYNCH M., YU F., MCGANN B., JEANNERET F., SUTTON J. (2017) Wind modelling, validation and sensitivity study using Weather Research and Forecasting model in complex terrain. Environmental Modelling & Software, 90:107-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.envsoft.2017.01.009.
OPOKU-ANKOMAH Y., CORDERY I. (1994) Atlantic Sea Surface temperatures and rainfall variability in Ghana. Journal of Climate, 7(4):551-558. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0551:ASSTAR>2.0.CO;2
QUILL R., SHARPLES J.J., WAGENBRENNER N.S, SIDHU L.A., FORTHOFER J.M. (2019) Modeling Wind Direction Distributions Using a Diagnostic Model in the context of Probabilistic Fire Spread Prediction. Front. Mech. Eng. 5:5. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmech.2019.00005
TACHIE-OBENG E., GYASI E., ADIKU S. (2012) Effec-tive adaptation options to climate change impact in Ghana: for present and possible cimate-projected climate change. Lambert Academic publishing, Germany, p.173.
UNIVERSITY OF LOUGHBOROUGH (2021) https:// climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/2021-01/infosheet 8.pdf.
WILDING L.P. (1985) Spatial variability: its documentation, accommodation and implication to soil surveys, pp. 166-194. In D.R. Nielsen and J. Bouma (eds.). Soil Spatial Variability: Pudoc, Wageningen, Netherlands.
WILLMOTT C., ACKLESON S., DAVIS R., FEDDEMA J., KLINK K., LEGATES D., O'DONNELL J., ROWE C. (1985) Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 90:8995-9005. https://doi.org/10.1029/JC090iC05p08995.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2023 Monday Sunday Adiaha, Oladiran Johnson Abimbola
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.