Downscaling and modelling climatic change projections with rainfall erosivity impact and wind velocity potential in the variability of tropical climate: a track towards space-earth sustainability nexus
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.2281-4485/16898Keywords:
Atmospheric wellbeing, Wind velocity, Wind direction, Climate projection, Sea-land-atmospheric nexusAbstract
The increase in atmospheric properties degradation including environmental polarization and ecosystem degradation has been linked with levels of climatic hazards posed by climatic change. The geographical location of the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria in the North Central geo-political zone of Nigeria within the Savannah vegetation zone of the Wet African sub-region was x-rayed for her atmospheric-climatic-space property of wind, rainfall and the impact of the meteorological element of rainfall on the erosivity of the area. Downscaling of a thirty five (35) years climatic data was done. Modelling and simulation was undertaken using geo-statistical and physical science modelling and simulation packages including QGIS and Statgraphics centurion. Simulated and modelled data were subjected to statistical analysis using descriptive statistics including P-statistics. Result of the finding revealed that there exist a shift in the climatic behaviour of the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria with projected data significant level at a P-value range at [P-value = 0.654638, P-value = 0.859967 and P-value = 0.859967] of the P-statistics at a 95% significant level (p > = 0.05), hence, validating a past (35 years) and future (12 years projection) change in the climatic behaviour of the area. Wind velocity impact in the area for the past 35 years has been huge, thus presenting a value range at 81.36km/h-12.6km/h which indicated high sea-land-atmospheric nexus impact towards the variability that exist in the climatic wellbeing of the area. Wind directional flux of the area ranges from 22°°-4.8 which also contributed to the change in climatic behavior of the area. There exist very minimal rainfall impact in the erosivity impact in the area, with a coefficient of Variation at CV=0.16%.
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