Contamination level, health risk assessment and Monte Carlo probabilistic models of trace metals in outdoor dust in different functional areas in Ondo City, Southwestern, Nigeria.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60923/issn.2281-4485/22614Keywords:
Trace metals, Exposures, Hazard Quotient, Non-Carcinogenic Risk, MCSAbstract
This study assesses the contamination level and health risk implications of trace metals in settled outdoor dust across the functional areas in Ondo City, southwestern Nigeria. Dust samples were collected from educational, residential, commercial, market, and recreational areas, and analyzed for Trace metals (Cu, Pb, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cd, Zn, and As) using ICP-MS technique. The Geo-accumulation Index (Igeo) revealed varying levels of contamination, ranging from unpolluted for Mn, As, Zn, and Cr, to highly contaminated for Cu and Ni, and extremely polluted for Cd and Pb. Despite PLI values indicating low overall contamination (PLI < 1), localized ecological risks were notable. Health risk assessments were conducted based on estimated average daily doses through ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation exposure pathways. While Hazard Quotient and Hazard Index values for non-carcinogenic effects were below unity across all areas, carcinogenic risk assessment revealed elevated values for Cd, especially in educational areas. For more realistic risk evaluation, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach was applied using Oracle Crystal Ball. The probabilistic MCS results showed that the 95th percentile cancer risk for children in educational areas reached 2.97E-03, exceeding the USEPA’s acceptable threshold of E-04. Sensitivity analysis identified Cd, As, and Ni as the major risk drivers, particularly affecting children in school environments and adults in commercial areas. These findings highlight the need for immediate public health interventions, particularly in educational settings. The study provides critical data to support urban environmental policy, exposure mitigation, and the protection of vulnerable populations in Nigerian cities.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Patrick O. Ayeku, Lasun T. Ogundele, Iyadunni A. Anuoluwa, Muyiwa M. Orosun, Adefemi O. Ajibare, Adenike O. Akinsemolu, Franklin F. Ogunniya
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