Agro-landscapes under armed conflicts: global research trends and recovery priorities (2000–2026)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60923/issn.2281-4485/24587Keywords:
war, ecosystem services, resilience, remote sensing, food security, UkraineAbstract
Armed conflicts are among the most disruptive forces acting on agro-landscapes, yet their impact on land-use systems and ecosystem services remains insufficiently integrated into landscape ecology and agroecological research. This paper aims to systematise the international body of knowledge on the mechanisms of war-induced impacts on agro-landscapes, to identify reproducible causal patterns of ecosystem service degradation, and to propose methodological priorities for comprehensive assessment and monitoring of agro-landscapes under active armed conflict and post-conflict recovery. The study is based on a bibliometric analysis of 1,502 publications (WoS/Scopus, 2000–2026) and a comparative analysis of five literature clusters reflecting the evolution of research paradigms from foundational ecological concepts to conflict-specific environmental impact studies. The synthesis shows that conflicts disrupt agro-landscapes through direct destruction, forced displacement, land abandonment, and institutional collapse, triggering cascading degradation of provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural ecosystem services. Resilience theory and socio-ecological systems frameworks are identified as essential but systematically underutilised analytical lenses. A pronounced geographic bias favouring East Africa and Latin America was detected, with Eastern Europe and the Middle East comparatively understudied — a gap being rapidly addressed by the Ukrainian case post-2022. Remote sensing has emerged as the dominant methodology for assessing conflict-induced land-use change, yet integration with socio-economic and institutional dimensions remains limited. The paper argues that the next priority is the development of coupled models — Earth observation + field validation + ecological-economic assessment + scenario analysis — capable of underpinning evidence-based agro-landscape recovery policy under conditions of prolonged uncertainty.
References
ALEXANDER P., BROWN C., ARNETH A., FINNIGAN J., ROUNSEVELL M.D.A. (2016) Human appropriation of land for food: The role of diet. Global Environmental Chan-ge, 41:88–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.09.005
ALLOUCHE J. (2011) The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global trade. Food Policy, 36(S1):S3–S8. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.foodpol.2010.11.013
ARIA M., CUCCURULLO C. (2017) bibliometrix: An R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis. Journal of Informetrics, 11(4):959–975. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.joi.2017.08.007
ASPINALL R., PEARSON D. (2000) Integrated geographical assessment of environmental condition in water catchments: Linking landscape ecology, environmental modelling and GIS. Journal of Environmental Management, 59(4):299–319. https://doi.org/ 10.1006/jema.2000.0372
BAUMANN M., KUEMMERLE T. (2016) The impacts of warfare and armed conflict on land systems. Journal of Land Use Science, 11(6):672–688. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/1747423X.2016.1241317
BAUMANN M., RADELOFF V.C., AVEDIAN V., KUEMMERLE T. (2015) Land-use change in the Caucasus during and after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Regional Environmental Change, 15:1703–1716. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0728-3
BEHNASSI M., EL HAIBA M. (2022) Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security. Nature Human Behaviour, 6:754–755 https://doi.org/ 10.1038/s41562-022-01391-x
BENTON T.G., BIEG C., HARWATT H., PUDARUTH R., WELLESLEY L. (2021) Food system impacts on biodi-versity loss: Three levers for food system transformation in support of nature. Chatham House Research Paper.
BERKE P., NEWMAN G., LEE J., COMBS T., KOLOSNA C., SALVESEN D. (2015) Evaluation of networks of plans and vulnerability to hazards and climate change: A resilience scorecard. Journal of the American Planning Association, 81(4):287–302. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/01944363.2015.1093954
BERKES F. (2004) Rethinking community-based conservation. Conservation Biology, 18(3):621–630. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00077.x
BIGNAL E.M., MCCRACKEN D.I. (2000) The nature conservation value of European traditional farming systems. Environmental Reviews, 8(3):149–171. https://doi.org/10.1139/er-8-3-149
BORIE M., HULME M. (2015) Framing global biodiversity: IPBES between mother earth and ecosystem services. Environmental Science & Policy, 54:487–496. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.05.009
BUN R., MARLAND G., ODA T., SEE L., PULIAFITO E., NAHORSKI Z., JONAS M., KOVALYSHYN V., IALONGO I., YASHCHUN O., ROMANCHUK Z. (2024) Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022. Science of The Total Environment, 914:169879. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169879.
BUSH J., DOYON A. (2019) Building urban resilience with nature-based solutions: How can urban planning contribute? Cities, 95:102483. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.cities.2019.102483
BUCHNER J., BUTSIC V., YIN H., KUEMMERLE T., BAUMANN M., ZAZANASHVILI N., STAPP J., RADELOFF V.C. (2022) Localized versus wide-ranging effects of the post-Soviet wars in the Caucasus on agri-cultural abandonment. Global Environmental Change, 76: 102580. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102580
CHAI L., LIU A., LI X., GUO Z., HE W., HUANG J., BAI T., LIU J. (2024) Telecoupled impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war on global cropland expansion and biodiversity. Nature Sustainability, 7:432–441. https://doi.org/ 10.1038/s41893-024-01292-z
COWIE A.L., PENMAN T.D., GORISSEN L., WINSLOW M.D., LEHMANN J., TYRRELL T.D., TWOMLOW S., WILKES A., LAL R., JONES J.W., PAULSCH A., KELLNER K., AKHTAR-SCHUSTER M. (2011) Towards sustainable land management in the drylands: Scientific connections in monitoring and assessing dryland degradation, climate change and biodiversity. Land Degradation & Development, 22:248–260. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/ldr.1086
DMYTRUK Y., CHERLINKA V., CHERLINKA L., DENT D. (2023) Soils in war and peace. International Journal of Environmental Studies, 80(2):380–393. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/00207233.2022.2152254.
DONTHU N., KUMAR S., MUKHERJEE D., PANDEY N., LIM W.M. (2021) How to conduct a bibliometric analysis. Journal of Business Research, 133:285–296. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.070
EKLUND L., DEGERALD M., BRANDT M., PRISHCHEPOV A.V., PILESJÖ P. (2017) How conflict affects land use. Environmental Research Letters, 12(5):054004. https://doi.org/ 10.1088/1748-9326/aa673a
FALKENMARK M., WANG-ERLANDSSON L., ROCKSTRÖM J. (2019) Understanding of water resilience in the Anthropocene. Journal of Hydrology X, 2:100009. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.hydroa.2018.100009
FERNÁNDEZ-GIMÉNEZ M.E., BATKHISHIG B., BATBUYAN B. (2012) Cross-boundary and cross-level dynamics increase vulnerability to severe winter disasters (dzud) in Mongolia. Global Environmental Change, 22(4): 836–851. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.001
HAHN T., OLSSON P., FOLKE C., JOHANSSON K. (2006) Trust-building, Knowledge Generation and Organizational Innovations: The Role of a Bridging Organization for Adaptive Comanagement of a Wetland Landscape around Kristianstad, Sweden. Human Ecology, 34:573–592. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10745-006-9035-z
HAZAYMEH K., SAHWAN W., AL SHOGOOR S., SCHÜTT B. (2022) A Remote Sensing-Based Analysis of the Impact of Syrian Crisis on Agricultural Land Abandonment in Yarmouk River Basin. Sensors, 22:3931.
https://doi.org/ 10.3390/s22103931
HE T., ZHANG M., XIAO W., ZHAI G., WANG Y., GUO A., WU C. (2023) Quantitative analysis of abandonment and grain production loss under armed conflict in Ukraine. Journal of Cleaner Production, 412:137367. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137367
HOSTERT P., KUEMMERLE T., PRISHCHEPOV A., SIBER R., LAMBIN E.F., RADELOFF V.C. (2011) Rapid land use change after socio-economic disturbances: the collapse of the Soviet Union versus Chernobyl. Environmental Research Letters, 6(4):045201. https://doi.org/ 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045201
KOTYKOVA O., BABYCH M., NADVINYCHNYY S., POHORIELOVA O. (2025) Agriculture in Ukraine: Regional and Global Impacts of the War. European Countryside, 17(1):204–227. https://doi.org/ 10.2478/euco-2025-0011
KUSSUL N., SHELESTOV A., YAILYIMOV B., YAILYIMOVA H., LEMOINE G. and DEININGER K. (2025) Assessment of war-induced agricultural land use changes in Ukraine using machine learning applied to Sentinel satellite data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 140:104551. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jag.2025.104551
MACDONALD D., CRABTREE J.R., WIESINGER G., DAX T., STAMOU N., FLEURY P., GUTIERREZ LAZPITA J., GIBON A. (2000) Agricultural abandonment in mountain areas of Europe: Environmental consequences and policy response. Journal of Environmental Management, 59(1):47–69. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.1999.0335
MEDINETS S., OENEMA O., SPEARS B.M., BUYANOVSKIY A., MEDINETS V., BROWNLIE W.J., NEMITZ E., VIENO M., SUTTON M.A. (2025) Nutrient asymmetry challenges the sustainability of Ukrainian agriculture. Communications Earth & Environment, 6:845. https://doi.org/ 10.1038/s43247-025-02826-9
MUNTEANU C., KUEMMERLE T., BOLTIZIAR M., BUTSIC V., GIMMI U., HALADA L., KAIM D., KIRÁLY G., KONKOLY-GYURÓ É., KOZAK J., LIESKOVSKÝ J., MOJSES M., MÜLLER D., OSTAFIN K., OSTAPO-WICZ K., SHANDRA O., ŠTYCH P., WALKER S., RADELOFF V.C. (2014) Forest and agricultural land chan-ge in the Carpathian region—A meta-analysis of long-term patterns and drivers of change. Land Use Policy, 38:685–697. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.01.012
NTIHINYURWA P.D., DE VRIES W.T., CHIGBU U.E., DUKWIYIMPUHWE P.A. (2019) The positive impacts of farm land fragmentation in Rwanda. Land Use Policy, 81:565 –581. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.11.005
NYSSEN J., NEGASH E., VAN SCHAEYBROECK B., HAEGEMAN K., ANNYS S. (2023) Crop Cultivation at Wartime – Plight and Resilience of Tigray’s Agrarian Society (North Ethiopia). Defence and Peace Economics, 34(5):618–645. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/10242694.2022.2066420
OLSEN V.M., FENSHOLT R., OLOFSSON P., BONIFACIO R., BUTSIC V., DRUCE D., RAY D., PRISHCHEPOV A.V. (2021) The impact of conflict-driven cropland abandonment on food insecurity in South Sudan revealed using satellite remote sensing. Nature Food, 2:990–996. https://doi.org/ 10.1038/s43016-021-00417-3
PAGE M.J., MCKENZIE J.E., BOSSUYT P.M., BOUTRON I., HOFFMANN T.C., MULROW C.D. et al. (2021) The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ, 372:n71. https://doi.org/ 10.1136/bmj.n71
PICHURA V., POTRAVKA L. (2025) Impact of war on na-tural and climatic transformation of territories in the irriga-tion zone of Ukraine. Discoveries and Applications in Scien-ce, 7:783. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s42452-025-07404-
RAWTANI D., GUPTA G., KHATRI N., RAO P.K., HUSSAIN C.M. (2022) Environmental damages due to war in Ukraine: A perspective. Science of The Total Environment, 850:157932. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157932
ROBINSON R.A., SUTHERLAND W.J. (2002) Post-war changes in arable farming and biodiversity in Great Britain. Journal of Applied Ecology, 39(1):157–176. https://doi.org/ 10.1046/j.1365-2664.2002.00695.x
SÁNCHEZ-CUERVO A.M., AIDE T.M. (2013) Consequences of the Armed Conflict, Forced Human Displacement, and Land Abandonment on Forest Cover Change in Colombia: A Multi-scaled Analysis. Ecosystems, 16:1052–1070. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-013-9667-y
SHARIFI A. (2019) Urban form resilience: A meso-scale analysis. Cities, 93:238–252. :https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.05.010
SCHEFFER M., CARPENTER S., FOLEY J.A., FOLKE C., WALKER B. (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413:591–596. https://doi.org/ 10.1038/35098000
SCHILLING J., FREIER K.P., HERTIG E., SCHEFFRAN J. (2012) Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 156:12–26. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.agee.2012.04.021
SCHILLING J., HERTIG E., TRAMBLAY Y., SCHEFFRAN J. (2020) Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa. Regional Environmental Change, 20:15. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10113-020-01597-7
SCHILLING J., SAULICH C., ENGWICHT N. (2018) A local to global perspective on resource governance and conflict. Conflict, Security & Development, 18(6):433–461. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/14678802.2018.1532641
SOLH M., VAN GINKEL M. (2014) Drought preparedness and drought mitigation in drylands. Weather and Climate Extremes, 3:62–66. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.wace.2014.03.003
SOLOKHA M.V., PARAKHNENKO V.H., ZADORO-ZHNA O.M., LIAKHOVSKA N.O., BLAHOPO-LUCHNA A.H. (2023) Environmental assessment of chemical pollution of soils as a result of the war. Taurian Scientific Herald, 131:46.
https://doi.org/ 10.32782/2226-0099.2023.131.46
TAMASIGA P., OUASSOU E., ONYEAKA H., BAKWENA M., HAPPONEN A. and MOLALA M. (2023) Forecasting disruptions in global food value chains to tackle food insecurity: The role of AI and big data analytics – A bibliometric and scientometric analysis. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 14:100819. https://doi.org/ : 10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100819
THEISEN O.M. (2012) Climate clashes? Weather variability, land pressure, and organized violence in Kenya, 1989–2004. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1):81–96. https://doi.org/ 10.1177/0022343311425842
THOMAS R.J. (2008) Opportunities to reduce the vulnera-bility of dryland farmers in Central and West Asia and North Africa to climate change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Envi-ronment, 126:36–45. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.011
WAGNER J., SKAKUN S., NAIR S.S. (2026) Monitoring winter crop areas during wartime: remote sensing support for Ukraine’s agricultural statistics. npj Sustainable Agricul-ture, 4:1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44264-025-00119-4
YIN H., BUTSIC V., BUCHNER J., KUEMMERLE T., PRISHCHEPOV A.V., BAUMANN M., BRAGINA E.V., SAYADYAN H., RADELOFF V.C. (2019) Agricultural abandonment and re-cultivation during and after the Chechen Wars in the northern Caucasus. Global Environmental Change, 55:149–159. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.01.005
YIN H., PRISHCHEPOV A.V., KUEMMERLE T., BLEYHL B., BUCHNER J., RADELOFF V.C. (2018) Mapping agricultural land abandonment from spatial and temporal segmentation of Landsat time series. Remote Sensing of Environment, 210:12–24. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.rse.2018.02.050
ZHANG H., JIAO L., LI C., DENG Z., WANG Z., JIA Q., LIAN X., LIU Y., HU Y. (2024) Global environmental impacts of food system from regional shock: Russia-Ukraine war as an example. Humanit Soc Sci Commun, 11:191. https://doi.org/ 10.1057/s41599-024-02667-5
ZIEGLER A.D., BRUUN T.B., GUARDIOLA-CLARAMONTE M., GIAMBELLUCA T.W., LAWRENCE D., NGUYEN T.L. (2009) Environmental Consequences of the Demise in Swidden Cultivation in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia: Hydrology and Geomorphology. Human Ecology, 37:361–373. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10745-009-9258-x
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Liudmyla Raichuk, Mariya Vysochanska
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
